Impacts of Climate Alteration on the Hydrology of the Yarra River Catchment, Australia Using GCMs and SWAT Model

A rigorous evaluation of future hydro-climatic changes is necessary for developing climate adaptation strategies a catchment. The integration projections from general circulation models (GCMs) in the simulations hydrologic model, such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), widely considered one most dependable approaches to assess impacts alteration on hydrology. main objective this study was potential hydrology Yarra River catchment Victoria, Australia, using SWAT model. five GCMs under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 4.5 8.5 2030 2050, respectively—were incorporated into calibrated model analysis behaviour against baseline period 1990–2008. performed well its simulation total streamflow, baseflow, runoff, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values more than 0.75 monthly calibration validation. Based GCMs, rainfall temperature are expected decrease increase, respectively, highest projected by GFDL-ESM2M RCP scenario 2050. These correspond significant increases annual evapotranspiration (8% 46%) decreases other water cycle components, especially surface runoff (79% 93%). Overall, indicate that area will become hotter, less winter–spring (June November) shortages within